Without Pepsi there would be no Coke.

If you’re old enough to drink hard seltzer, you may remember the cola wars. Or perhaps you’ve heard Billy Joel sing about them in his historical hit song “We Didn’t Start the Fire.”  The famed marketing battle between rivals Coke and Pepsi may be returning soon. Only this time we’re talking about Hard Seltzer wars. 

Currently, the biggest rivals in the hard seltzer space are early industry leaders White Claw and Truly, yet the former was out of the gates first. Credited with helping to launch the hard seltzer rush to produce when it hit the market in 2016, Mark Anthony Brand’s White Claw is the Coca-Cola of the alcoholic water world.  Without Truly there would be no White Claw.

To put things into perspective, in 2019 the hard seltzer market grew by over 200 percent. White Claw enjoys around 60 percent of the hard seltzer market share, which was nearly three times that of Truly, their closest competitor.

Although Truly has been called the “Pepsi to White Claw’s Coke,” Coca-Cola itself is entering the hard seltzer game later this year via their brand Mexican mineral water brand, Topo Chico. Already a popular mixer among bartenders and mixologists, Topo Chico will release its first hard seltzer – Tangy Lemon – in select Latin American cities this fall. If all goes well, US markets will follow in 2021. 

Before spiking Topo Chico, Coca-Cola introduced another citrusy hard seltzer, Lemon-do, to Japanese markets in 2018. A uniquely Japanese beverage, Coca-Cola has already said that they are unlikely to expand Lemon-do beyond the country. 

Cola-Cola’s 16.7% share in Monster Beverage Corp. could be another entry point for some competition, as there are indications that Monster Energy is working on a hard seltzer, too.

Will Pepsi, the perennial thorn in the side to Coca-Cola follow its biggest rival into the alcohol industry? While both soda makers have had their own product foibles (who can forget the PR disaster known as “New Coke,” or the clearly misguided Crystal Pepsi?) hard seltzer still has plenty of green pastures. 

Pepsi already has a line of energy drinks through their Mountain Dew brand – Kickstart. Perhaps expanding into flavored malt beverages would be a natural extension of that product line. Pepsi has long tried to market itself as the hip choice for hip young people, or “the choice of a new generation,” as they so eloquently phrased it.

The soda company also released Bubly, its fun and fruity line of soft seltzers, in 2018. Bubly Booze could also be a logical fit to produce a PepsiCo alcoholic seltzer. PepsiCo has already said that they want to make Bubly their next billion dollar brand, and hard seltzer is a multi-billion dollar industry. 

It is unlikely that we will see a new alcoholic Pepsi challenge anytime soon. But sugary soda consumption is decreasing among consumer health and wellness trends; US soda consumption is currently at a three-decade low amidst the popularity of seltzers — both hard and soft.

As hard seltzer truly is the choice of a new (legal-drinking age) generation, it might make sense for Pepsi to foray into this emerging market.  We’d love to be a fly on the wall at that Board meeting.

Editor’s note: Hard Seltzer News reached out to PepsiCo Beverages North America for comment and was told “we’ll get back to you.”

Erin Grafton
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